![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Generally this is because governance in many African countries present a facade of democracy but don’t yet reflect substantive democracy. In Africa, this has led to disaffection and violence around elections that are often rigged rather than free and fair. The big question for 2017 is: is violent political extremism going to move from the Middle East to Africa? Put another way, is it in Africa that Al Qaeda and the Islamic State will find solid footage as they are displaced from the Middle East?Īnti government turbulence has also increased in recent years. Terrorism has also increased, but depending on how one defines it, it has always been widely prevalent in Africa both as a tactic to secure decolonisation as well as between and among competing armed groups. This greater fragmentation complicates peacemaking. Insurgents are often divided and sometimes even fighting amongst themselves. So it’s not a matter of “government vs an armed group” but a “government vs many armed groups”. Today there are many more non-state actors involved in armed conflict in Africa – representing a greater fracturing of armed groupings. Data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, the Global Terrorism Database and others indicate that armed conflict peaked in 1990/91 at the end of the Cold War, declined to 2005/6, remained relative stable to 2010/11 and then increased to 2015, although it peaked at lower levels than in 1990/91 before its most recent decline.Īrmed conflict has changed. Levels of armed conflict in Africa rise and fall. ![]() Development is disruptive but also presents huge opportunities. Africa will remain turbulent because it is poor and young, but also because it is growing and dynamic. ![]()
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